Earlier today the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) voted that Obamacare was constitutional so long as the penalty for not purchasing insurance is seen as a tax and not a mandate. Following the announcement I tweeted that Pres. Obama just won reelection. I want to try and explain my reasoning in this post. But first some comments:
Comment #1: My tweet is based on how things stand right now. Things can change. A lot can happen between now and election day. However, I have been telling people for months that I thought Pres. Obama would be reelected. With little to no improvement on the economy it should have been easy for the Republicans to win, but their choice of Mitt Romney was an incredibly weak choice. This is why so many “undecideds” are “undecided” – they don’t want to vote for Obama, but don’t believe Romney is any better.
Comment #2: I have decided instead of being a political activist to be nothing more than a political observer. I am an amateur “people watcher.” I like to study how groups, organizations, and all of society works. I think I can make a greater contribution by commenting on how I see things than on getting overly involved (and overly stressed) in the outcome of elections. I am trying to be as unbiased as possible. My only bias is I am a follower of Jesus Christ and I try to look at all things through the lenses of a Christian worldview. The major force behind my decision to be an observer and not an activist is my belief that I am more a citizen of heaven than a citizen of the United States. This world is not my home. I am an alien in a strange place.
Comment #3: While I did vote in the last presidential election, I did not vote for Obama and I did not vote for McCain. I am seriously considering not voting at all in this year’s presidential election. (I will vote in my local and state elections.)
Now, here is why I think that right now, the way things stand, Pres. Obama will win reelection:
The Republicans were convinced, at the very least, the individual mandate portion of Obamacare would be ruled unconstitutional. The only question they had was if all of Obamacare would be ruled unconstitutional, or just part; and even if it were just part, once the individual mandate was struck down, the entire thing would crumble. The Republicans were so convinced of this that they started encouraging each other to not “spike the ball” and to accept victory with grace and humility. They were convinced Pres. Obama’s only achievement during his first term was going to go down in flames. The Republicans put all their eggs in the basket of Obamacare being ruled unconstitutional, and that did not happen. Their very own conservative Chief Justice (appointed by Pres. Bush) was the deciding vote.
Now the Republicans will over reach and call for an immediate repeal of Obamacare. In fact, the House has already announced they will vote on July 11th to repeal it. This will prove to be a huge mistake and will accomplish nothing except political grandstanding.
People are getting tired of the relentless, nonstop, criticizing and name calling directed toward Pres. Obama. Now that Obamacare has been ruled Constitutional by SCOTUS, and Pres. Obama proven “right,” the more Republicans continue to call Obama a Muslim, non-U.S. citizen, socialists, Marxist, communist, the more it will energize people to vote for him and against Romney. Today’s decision by SCOTUS will energize the democratic base just as much, if not more, than the republican base. To date, the republican base has been more energized than the democratic base, but that will change as the days go by. People, who have been silent, will now start coming to the defense of Pres. Obama.
The Republicans will hang themselves by calling for the repeal of Obamacare. All the Democrats have to do is beat the drum that the Bain Capital Millionaire Romney, who can afford health care, wants to take away your health care. The more Republicans attack Obamacare, and Pres. Obama, the more ammunition they will be giving the Democrats for their class warfare strategy. Furthermore, all the attacks Mitt Romney makes against Obamacare will fall on deaf ears because it will be pointed out that Obamacare was based on Romneycare.
Instead of hammering on Obamacare, the Republicans need to hammer on the economy, the high unemployment rate, Pres. Obama’s inability to create real jobs, and his foreign policies. For the moment, they need to leave Obamacare alone and let things settle down. The Republicans need to learn to be gracious in defeat, reorganize, and come up with a new strategy. It may be to late, but it is their only hope.
Today’s decision by SCOTUS gives Pres. Obama the inside track to reelection. It is his to lose.
But then again…I could be wrong.
What do you think?